Baseline and projected material outlook
NBVC · Pacific Southwest example · 30,000 GSF · 2035 construction · session only, not procurement guidance
24% recovered-stock credit
Fixture basis · 1 active availability stressor
Fixture basis · 30% staged SCM pathway
Fixture basis · model gap
Baseline material demand
Reference demand · recovered material shown as hatched supply credit
| Material | Demand index | Share | Availability | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concrete | 74 | 36.3% | 92% | low |
| Structural steel | 48 | 23.5% | 86% | low |
| SCM blend | 16 | 7.8% | 74% | watch |
| Aggregates | 66 | 32.4% | 89% | low |
Baseline material cost
Demand-weighted allocation · baseline year only
Demand-weighted allocation proxy
MODEL GAP — Allocations follow normalized demand because reviewed material unit prices are not present in the reference dataset.
| Material | Cost-driver index | Estimated allocation | Availability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concrete | 100 | $464.3K | 92% |
| Structural steel | 65 | $301.2K | 86% |
| SCM blend | 22 | $100.4K | 74% |
| Aggregates | 89 | $414.1K | 89% |
Projected material demand
2035 scenario · limited availability is hatched; a year-varying demand profile is not modeled
| Material | Demand index | Share | Availability | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concrete | 71 | 33.2% | 83% | low |
| Structural steel | 46 | 21.5% | 75% | watch |
| SCM blend | 31 | 14.5% | 67% | watch |
| Aggregates | 66 | 30.8% | 85% | low |
Projected material availability
Schematic availability field · one material focus at a time
Schematic supply field · FY 2035
Illustrative · not mappedNOT A GEOSPATIAL CLAIM — Cells, contours, and connectors are abstract index geometry; they do not identify facilities, suppliers, or routes.
SCM blend: 67%| Material | Availability | Risk | Selected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concrete | 83% | low | No |
| Structural steel | 75% | watch | No |
| SCM blend | 67% | watch | Yes |
| Aggregates | 85% | low | No |
What is creating pressure in this run?
Import disruption creates the largest modeled pressure on clinker and specialty steel. SCM blend is the lowest-availability material in the active fixture at 67% availability.
Next comparison: Compare domestic supply capacity with a staged SCM substitution before briefing.
What changed in this run
| Material | Baseline | Projected | Change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concrete | 92% | 83% | -9 | low |
| Structural steel | 86% | 75% | -11 | watch |
| SCM blend | 74% | 67% | -7 | watch |
| Aggregates | 89% | 85% | -4 | low |